According to SMM news, in October, sales of new energy vehicles in the eight European countries increased by 200% year-on-year, down 9.9% month-on-month. Affected by the second outbreak, the month-on-month growth rate dropped, but the year-on-year growth rate remained strong. China's new energy vehicle sales in October also grew by 104.5% year-on-year. Since the third quarter, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in China and Europe has rebounded rapidly, and the demand for ternary batteries has steadily increased, supporting the consumption of primary nickel. Recently, the domestic spot market nickel beans maintain a premium to Shanghai Nickel (118580, -160.00, -0.13%). Most domestic nickel sulfate companies are in full production. The supply of nickel beans on the market is tight, and the Russian nickel premium has also narrowed slightly. Jinchuan Nickel Due to the serious shortage of stocks, the premium has strengthened sharply, and the overall performance of refined nickel spot has been relatively strong. Affected by the demand for stainless steel, the willingness of ferronickel plants to support the price weakened, and the quotation of ferronickel was loosened. The current price of high ferronickel fell to 1140-1160 yuan/ton (tax included in the plant), which is close to the psychological price of some stainless steel plants, but most The immediate profit of the ferronickel plant fell into a loss. Last week, China’s nickel ore port inventory rebounded slightly. However, as the rainy season approaches in the Philippines, the export volume of Philippine nickel ore will see a significant decline after November. Calculated by SMM nickel port inventory and September nickel-iron production data, the current nickel ore Port inventory can only maintain two months of production, and the supply of nickel ore in China will become increasingly tight in the future.
Nickel point of view: Nickel supply and demand in the fourth quarter still have support, but the short-term upper space will be difficult to open due to the drag of stainless steel consumption. Nickel prices will remain high and fluctuate as a whole. With the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore will become increasingly tight in the later period. It is expected that domestic ferronickel plants will begin to significantly reduce production at the end of the year, while Indonesian ferronickel is concentrated in the hands of a few companies, and the supply side may still support prices. From the demand side, the consumption performance of stainless steel in the fourth quarter was average. The price of 304 stainless steel remained weak. The high output of stainless steel may be unsustainable under low profits. Although the demand for nickel sulfate performed well, the overall demand for nickel may be slightly weaker, resulting in nickel The price upside is difficult to open. Therefore, if there are no new changes to change the current pattern, the upper and lower space of nickel prices in the fourth quarter will be limited, or it may show high fluctuations.
Nickel strategy: Unilateral: Nickel prices fluctuated at a high level in the fourth quarter. You can consider buying on dips in the event of a major correction. However, due to limited upper space, you need to be cautious when chasing highs. Arbitrage: Buy nickel-empty stainless steel.
Nickel focus points: Indonesia's nickel mining policy, the macro environment, the epidemic and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, the progress of Indonesian ferronickel production, and the supply of large traditional nickel companies.
304 stainless steel varieties:
Mysteel data shows that this week, Wuxi and Foshan 300 series stainless steel inventory (new caliber) continued to rise slightly, while cold rolling decreased and hot rolled increased. Recently, mainstream 300 series stainless steel plants lowered their quotations again, and the December 304 cold and hot rolled futures prices were lowered by 400-500 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was frustrated and downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Because the profit of 304 stainless steel was significantly weaker than that of 430, the output of 300 series stainless steel declined in October. However, due to the new production capacity of 300 series stainless steel in November, the output is expected to increase slightly, and the output of 300 series in Indonesia continues to rise. The current stainless steel spot market is relatively abundant, and holders still focus on shipments, and the downstream just needs to purchase, but the cost of stainless steel plants remains high, and most stainless steel plants are at a loss under spot raw material prices.
Stainless steel point of view: The current nickel and stainless steel industry chain has big differences between the upstream and downstream. The upstream nickel ore supply is tight and the price is strong, while the downstream stainless steel demand is flat. The contradiction between strong cost and weak consumption continues. Recently, the price of nickel raw materials is still on the high side, the cost of steel mills has remained high, and the profit of the steel mills in the first half of the year is good, and the funds are abundant. The steel mills are more willing to price, and the voice of the industry chain is still concentrated in the hands of the steel mills. The current downstream inventory At a low level, it is temporarily difficult to open up the downward price space, but the upward momentum is insufficient and the overall price is still weak.
Stainless steel strategy: unilateral: short-term wait-and-see, stainless steel in the fourth quarter is generally treated with the idea of selling short on rallies. Arbitrage: Buy nickel-empty stainless steel. The supply of stainless steel is abundant. The new production capacity of stainless steel is good for nickel but bad for stainless steel. The bad influence of Indonesia's nickel and iron on refined nickel is significantly less than that of stainless steel. Refined nickel is still supported by the recovery of ternary battery consumption. Later, the nickel/stainless steel ratio may tend to strengthen in general. .
Stainless steel focus points: Indonesia's nickel mining policy, downstream consumption, the Philippines and Indonesia epidemic and policy changes, stainless steel inventory, stainless steel positions and deliverables, China and Indonesia's NPI and the progress of new stainless steel production capacity.