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What support or risk factors exist?

Source:DuXin    Time:09 May 2021

Song Minjia, Nickel and Stainless Steel Researcher, Metals Group, Guangzhou Futures Research Institute: The recent tight supply of nickel ore is difficult to reverse. The strong ore price has supported the raw material side of ferronickel, and the cost of steel mills remained high, and the profit of steel mills in the first half of the year was good. , The steel mills have a strong willingness to raise prices. Although the downstream stainless steel inventory is small, but still at a low level, it will support the price of stainless steel to a certain extent. However, if the follow-up stainless steel market demand is not boosted, under the pressure of continuous high supply, the price of stainless steel lacks upward mobility, and the overall situation may remain volatile. Weak operating situation. In the later period, we need to pay attention to the Philippines and Indonesia epidemic and policy changes, stainless steel inventory, China and Indonesia's NPI and the progress of new stainless steel production capacity.

SDIC Anxin Futures Nonferrous Group: The end of the year stainless steel terminal consumption weakened, and the acceleration of the return of nickel and iron in Indonesia has made the raw material supply expectations loose. Due to the loosening of cost support, the loose supply of stainless steel itself, and the weakening of consumption at the end of the year, the rebound of stainless steel prices is limited. At present, the main support of stainless steel lies in the cost side, that is, the support of nickel prices, and on the other hand, whether stainless steel plants can take the initiative to reduce production and accelerate destocking. The risk point is that the decline in nickel prices at the cost side will expand in the later stage, and the accumulation of stainless steel inventory will slow down, so the price of stainless steel disks may fall further.

Ruida Futures Metals Researcher Wang Fuhui: As the Philippines gradually enters the rainy season, the supply of nickel ore will enter the off-season. The domestic nickel ore supply is difficult to change. The shortage of nickel ore has caused domestic smelters to reduce and stop production. The price of nickel and iron is expected to remain stable. At present, some stainless steel plants are already in a state of loss, and the willingness of steel plants to keep prices will also increase when raw material prices are firm. At the same time, the recent decline in stainless steel prices has stimulated downstream willingness to receive goods. The inventory of the 300 series in Foshan and Wuxi markets has declined significantly, indicating that the shipment situation is better, which relieves the pressure on the inventory to a certain extent, and the current futures price has discounted more than 1,000 yuan from the spot price /Ton. Therefore, the space under short-term stainless steel is expected to be limited. However, due to the simultaneous expansion of domestic stainless steel production and overseas imports, the supply side is still facing greater pressure. At the same time, the domestic market's consumption performance has weakened, and the overseas epidemic situation is severe, stainless steel prices are unlikely to rebound significantly. The market outlook is concerned about the rainy season in the Philippines, the tight supply of nickel ore may further intensify, and if the overseas epidemic situation improves, it will benefit the gradual recovery of exports, and the price of stainless steel is expected to rise.

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